Kala on the Human Climate Effect

Certainly

Science is often misunderstood as a world of certainty. It is not. Rather, it is a world of probability. A hypothesis becomes a theory when three things happen — it can explain the past, is consistent with observations from the present, and successfully predicts results in the future. But even then, science is modest and will seek every possible avenue to prove a theory wrong through quantitative engagement, an admission of probabilistic uncertainty. A high degree of confidence in a theory is thus based on accumulated observation and data, the more being the merrier. But absolute certainty is belief not science. 

Heavy, man...

Take gravity. Measurement is so consistent and sustained that we send spacecraft hurtling through the solar system using the gravity of moons and planets in the solar system to shift trajectory and gain speed. We place satellites in orbit with such precision that they precisely “fall” around the earth for decades with only minor adjustments to counter orbital decay.

General relativity (GR), a geometric theory of gravitation, seems strange and fantastic but its predictions are remarkable.

General relativity (GR), a geometric theory of gravitation, seems strange and fantastic but its predictions have been remarkable. As we began launching those satellites we observed that their atomic clocks were not ticking at the same rate as those on the ground. This timing variability, a function of relative speed and gravity, was predicted by GR. As weird as relative time might seem it must be taken into account by GPS’s coordinated clocks, ensuring the signals arriving from multiple satellites are properly timed so your route to that new pizza joint you're ready to try is smooth.

GR’s calculations continue to match observation in increasingly subtle ways even though gravity's actual mechanism remains mysterious. Will GR be supplanted someday? Maybe. But it’s been so reliable in explaining and predicting gravitational effects that it has long been granted the status of theory and we use it to make our daily lives better in myriad ways.

Is it just me, or is it warm in here?

The effects of climate change are not as obvious to us as gravity. We don’t get the same feeling in the pit of our stomach contemplating a 2C rise in global temperatures as we do approaching the edge of a cliff. The changes are so subtle and long term that they are practically imperceptible. But that doesn’t mean they are any less real. And while subtle changes in the global climate are not as easily observed as an apple falling and bonking you on the head (which happened to the other famous gravitational theoretician), the change can be measured with significant precision and confidence. So, just like gravity and other observations that need explanation we began to hypothesize about why our earth seems to be warming.



Tying cause to effect in a system as large and complex as our globe’s climate is tricky and the path to building our current confidence levels has been uneven and remains imperfect. CO2’s heat-trapping effect was first documented in the mid-19th century when the CO2 we generated as humans was so minimal there was no reason to connect it to climate science, a field of study which didn’t even exist. But concerns around the effects of industrial pollution, generally, and CO2 and other atmospheric gasses specifically, grew dramatically in the 20th century. Research escalated and more brains, more data from more points on the globe, and more tools for aggregation and analysis were applied. The result? A correlation with the hypothetical models' predictions. In short, we have gained confidence in the probability that the global warming we observe and measure is being caused, at least in part, by excess CO2, methane, and other gasses in the atmosphere.

While subtle changes in the global climate are not as easily observed as an apple falling and bonking you on the head, the change can be measured with significant precision and confidence.

The next question would naturally be how are excess gasses making their way into the atmosphere and to what extent might humans be responsible. It’s beyond our discussion here, but evidence implicating human activity, primarily from the extraction, processing and burning of fossil-based fuel sources, is piled so high you can’t really see past it. Oddly enough, observational data suggests that the earth would be even warmer if not for a natural cooling cycle associated with volcanoes and solar activity over the last 50 years. In short, the probabilistic case that human activity is causing the bulk of global warming is close enough to certainty to warrant action.



Crystal ball is a little cloudy

What the future will be like as the climate warms is, well, hotly debated. Some places are likely to be wetter, some dryer. Some warmer, some cooler. Sea levels will continue to rise as ice melts and will rise even further as warmer water expands. There will be places on earth where global warming might seem beneficial in the short term. But that is little comfort. More heat means more turbulence, more nasty weather, the disruption of natural habitats, species extinction, and the potential for conflicts between humans for disrupted resources. The detailed effects are impossible to pin down with precision, but the probability of severe consequences is already manifesting. Consequently we must ask ourselves what might we do to help change this risky dynamic.



Why We Build the Way We Build

We're in this together

The strain we are placing on the earth’s climate it is a result of our natural and positive urge to live richer lives. It is the result of an economic system that has lifted billions out of poverty and scientific advancement that has more than doubled average life expectancy in the last 100 years. It is the result of our capacity to create, innovate and build. And it will be these same traits that will help us stop climate change while continuing to live full lives, lift more people out of poverty, and, live longer. But how do we do this while reducing our climate impact?

We believe it starts with first recognizing our debt to the men and women, past and present, who power our world through their investment and hard work.

We believe it starts with first recognizing our debt to the men and women, past and present, who power our world through their investment and hard work, and fostering an environment that supports a transition for those families whose livelihoods depend on our continued consumption of what they produce. It continues by focusing on solutions that may require adjustments to our patterns of behavior but ultimately enhance rather than detract from the luxurious lifestyles to which we’ve grown accustom. And, while understanding that government will play a critical role in creating helpful policy, not waiting to make the individual decisions that are fully possible today to live a lifestyle that is friendlier to our planet.



Thank you

It is pointless and counterproductive to vilify those who create and deliver the energy powering our modern, comfortable, rich lives. We benefit every day from the hard work of those who produce and transport energy we use in planes, cars, homes, lawn mowers, and mobile phones. Steady, cheap power allows us to move about the planet with ease, stay cool or warm at the touch of a button, receive medical care when we are sick, and enjoy strawberries in the winter. It’s an extraordinary achievement we bask in every day.

Energy is so important to our world that every form of it is regulated and subsidized to ensure that there is a steady flow.

Since the industrial revolution began our endless appetite for energy has been met in increasingly sophisticated ways supported by government programs, risk-tolerant entrepreneurs, and dangerous physical labor. Energy is so important to our world that every form of it is regulated and subsidized to ensure that there is a steady flow. We have moved from burning wood, to coal, to oil, to natural gas, to uranium and plutonium. Though each progression has led to less particulate pollution and CO2 waste per unit of energy, all of them end up creating by-products that harm our environment. While it is time to move on we should and can do so without leaving anyone behind.

We all want more

As we shift to renewable energy our taste for the good life will not abate but expand. It is unrealistic to expect those in the developed world to give up their lifestyle, or those in the developing world to ignore their growing personal economic power and not live richer than they have in the past. We will not stop traveling, surrender modern climate control, lower our expectations of healthcare, or give up the luxury of delicious food anytime of the year. Humans are not good at sacrificing. They’re not good at going backward.



We don’t believe we should or need to. The very same ingenuity and hard work that brought us this far can continue to take us further. But we do have to recognize that what got us to this point is not what will take us forward.

A climate of change

Backing off the lifestyle to which we’ve grown accustomed is not our game. We believe that there is an alternative. It requires moving from the cheapest way to build to a more long-term value approach. It means focusing on thoughtful design instead of gross square feet. It means modest up front investment in home construction that will yield lower operating costs and greater comfort over the life of your home. But most importantly it takes your decision to simply ponder how your life can be enriched by a different kind of home.

As builders, we take the responsibility of showing you how you can live better in a home that has a light, zero, or even negative operational carbon footprint. It is our job to pull together the technologies that reduce the embedded carbon footprint of a home that will last for 10 or more generations. It’s our obligation to design a home that is big enough to live large but small enough to fit in the city where life is vibrant, social and rewarding.

Change makes us all uncomfortable. But going green is not a zero sum game. The sun, wind, ocean, and geothermal depths of the earth offer orders of magnitude greater energy for our consumption than we need. We simply need to harness it. We are building to use that energy. As consumers, we hold ultimate power. Exercise that power by letting us show you how living green is so much better than the default.